Sorry about the delay in today’s MLB betting piece. Some doctor’s appointments created a late start, while was tough with that one Noon start. After putting together a 73% win rate in MLB betting two weeks ago, we took a slight step back last week, but still finished above .500
Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.
Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.
Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.
New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms
MLB Odds and Schedule, May 9
Kansas City Royals (9-16) @ Baltimore Orioles (11-17), 12:05 p.m. ET
The Royals have been a bad offense, ranking 29th in baseball with 3.12 runs per game, but the Orioles are just barely better, scoring 3.43 runs per game on the season, which ranks tied for 25th in the league. The Royals’ bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.75 ERA, while the Orioles have a 3.49 mark despite their hot start.
- KC Starting Pitcher: Carlos Hernandez (0-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 4.00 K/9)
- BAL Starting Pitcher: Tyler Wells (0-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.50 K/9)
- The Pick: Pass. The over/under is just set so low for these two starters. I know these offenses haven’t been very good, but both of these pitchers have given up a fair amount of hard contact. It’s just tough to really know which, if any, offense can break through today.
Texas Rangers (11-15) @ New York Yankees (19-8), 1:05 p.m. ET
The Rangers have slowed as an offense of late, scoring 4.19 runs per game on the season, which is 13th in the league, while the Yankees are up the 6th in baseball with 4.56 runs scored per game. The Yankees have had the best bullpen performance in baseball with a 2.35 bullpen ERA, while the Rangers have been slowly improving but still have a 3.57 rate.
- TEX Starting Pitcher: Jon Gray (0-1, 7.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.25 K/9)
- NYY Starting Pitcher: Nestor Cortes (1-1, 1.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.31 K/9)
- The Pick:
Los Angeles Dodgers (19-7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (11-16), 6:35 p.m. ET
The Dodgers are back where they belong as the best offense in baseball with 5.15 runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking 22nd with 3.78 runs scored per game. The Dodgers bullpen is second-best in baseball with a 2.42 ERA, while the Pirates are near the bottom with a 4.29 mark.
- LAD Starting Pitcher: Julio Urias (2-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.13 K/9)
- PIT Starting Pitcher: Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.50 K/9)
- The Pick:
Milwaukee Brewers (19-10) @ Cincinnati Reds (5-23), 6:40 p.m. ET
The Brewers have cooled from their hot stretch in the middle of last week (which was against these Reds), but are scoring just 4.76 runs per game, ranking 2nd in baseball. That’s the polar opposite of the Reds, who rank 23rd with 3.57 runs scored per game; however, the Reds have scored seven runs per game over their last three. These bullpens are also polar opposites, as the Brewers have a 3.08 mark, while the Reds have a league-worst 4.92 mark.
- MIL Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (1-2, 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.47 K/9)
- CIN Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo (8-16, 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.21 K/9 in 2021)
- The Pick:
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Oakland Athletics (10-18) @ Detroit Tigers (8-19), 7:10 p.m. ET
These are two fairly poor offenses. Oakland ranks 25th in baseball with 3.43 runs per game; meanwhile, the Tigers are dead last with 2.89 runs per game. The Tigers have had one of the best bullpens in baseball to start the season, earning a 2.67 ERA, while the Athletics have a solid 3.33 bullpen ERA.
- OAK Starting Pitcher: Paul Blackburn (3-0, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.51 K/9)
- DET Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.77 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 5.02 K/9)
- The Pick:
Cleveland Guardians (14-14) @ Chicago White Sox (14-13), 8:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians continue to defy expectations and rank 3rd in baseball with 4.71 runs per game. The White Sox meanwhile swept the Red Sox but still scored just 3.33 runs per game in that series and rank 27th in baseball with 3.30 runs scored per game. They will get Yoan Moncada back for this series, which may provide them with a spark. These two bullpens are both fairly solid, with the Guardians pitching to a 3.24 bullpen ERA and the White Sox compiling a 3.19 mark.
- CLE Starting Pitcher: Zach Plesac (1-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5.47 K/9)
- CHW Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech (0-0, 1.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
- The Pick:
Tampa Bay Rays (18-11) @ Los Angeles Angels (19-11), 9:38 p.m. ET
These are two of the top-ten offenses in MLB. The Angels are 5th with 4.63 runs scored per game, while the Rays are just slightly behind in 8th with 4.48 runs per game. The Rays have one of the best bullpens in the league to start the year, with a 2.93 ERA, while the Angels have recorded a 3.48 mark.
- TB Starting Pitcher: Bullpen Game
- LAA Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (2-1, 2.63 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.25 K/9)
- The Pick: Pass
- WHY?: I want to bet on this game, but the model is telling me not to, so I’m going to listen. Tampa Bay is going to be hard to pin down because they’re going to throw a few different arms. That can often be a real headache for hitters, who have trouble getting into a rhythm. The model calls for this game to be decided by 0.10 runs, which means no team has a real advantage. It also called for the total runs to be 7.56, which is basically exactly the over/under. If anything, I might take the +1.5 runs with Tampa, but I’ll just pass.
Chicago Cubs (9-18) @ San Diego Padres (19-10), 9:40 p.m. ET
The Cubs have cooled from their hot start and now rank 20th in baseball with 3.81 runs scored per game. The Padres also scored just two runs per game in their series against the Marlins and now rank 10th with 4.38 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens this season with Cubs having a 3.46 bullpen ERA and the Padres carrying a poor 4.21 rate.
- CHC Starting Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (1-3, 5.64 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.82 K/9)
- SD Starting Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (2-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.43 K/9)
- The Pick:
Miami Marlins (13-15) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (15-14), 9:40 p.m. ET
These are two fairly average offenses. The Marlins have been slightly better, but they rank just 18th with 3.96 runs scored per game, while the Diamondbacks are 24th with 3,45 runs scored per game. The Marlins also have a better bullpen, pitching to a 3.05 bullpen ERA, while Arizona has a 4.71 mark. However, the Diamondbacks did just sweep the Marlins last week.
- MIA Starting Pitcher: Elieser Hernandez (2-1, 6.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.51 K/9)
- ARI Starting Pitcher: Humberto Castellanos (2-1, 4.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.49 K/9)
- The Pick:
Philadelphia Phillies (12-16) @ Seattle Mariners (13-16), 9:40 p.m. ET
These are two offenses with clear potential but inconsistent results to start the season. They both averaged just 3.67 runs per game in their last series, so the Phillies now rank 11th in baseball with 4.36 runs scored per game while the Mariners are 15th with 4.07 runs scored per game. These bullpens are both under-performing of late, with the Phillies pitching to a 4.43 bullpen ERA and the Mariners falling down to a 3.65 rate.
- PHI Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez (2-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.79 K/9)
- SEA Starting Pitcher: Chris Flexen (1-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5.28 K/9)
- The Pick:
Colorado Rockies (16-12) @ San Francisco Giants (16-12), 9:45 p.m. ET
This is another matchup of top-ten offenses with the Giants ranking 4th in MLB with 4.68 runs per game, while the Rockies are just behind them in 9th with 4.46 runs scored per game. While the offenses are similarly ranked, the bullpens certainly are not. The Giants feature a solid bullpen with a 3.47 ERA, while the Rockies have one of the worst bullpens and are pitching to a 4.89 bullpen ERA.
- COL Starting Pitcher: Austin Gomber (2-2, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.46 K/9)
- SF Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon (3-1, 1.55 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12.72 K/9)
- The Pick:
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F5 Parlay of the Day
We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.
NYY (F5 ML) + CHW (F5 ML) + MIL (F5 ML)
Odds: +252 so $10 earns you $35.24
Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games: