MLB daily betting guide: Odds, picks, schedule May 1

Logan Gilbert MLB odds
Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Hopefully, we can keep up with Eric Samulski and finish out this week of MLB picks on a high note after a strong showing so far — and what better way to do so than with Sunday baseball.

Below, we take you through today’s 15-game schedule and the odds for each matchup along with the starting pitchers and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but think about how you want to bet the game — if that’s something you want to do.

Remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s fine to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 1

Boston Red Sox (9-13) at Baltimore Orioles (7-14), 1:05 p.m. ET

Two of the seven worst offenses in MLB finish out their series after a total of seven runs have been scored between the two teams over the first two games of this set. Maybe things change with two high-ERA guys on the mound today.

  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta (0-3, 8.27 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 8.8 K/9)
  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Lyles (1-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.8 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Minnesota Twins (12-9) at Tampa Bay Rays (12-9), 1:10 p.m.

The Twins (3.16 ERA) and Rays (3.18 ERA) rank seventh and eighth respectively in team pitching this season. However, they’ve been cracked open once over the first two games of the series. Tampa put up six on Minnesota on Friday before the Twins returned the favor in a 9-1 drubbing on Saturday.

  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Josh Winder (0-0, 3.48 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, 4.4 K/9 in 2021)
  • TB Starting Pitcher: Josh Fleming (2-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.750 WHIP, 11.3 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

San Diego Padres (14-8) at Pittsburgh Pirates (9-12), 1:35 p.m.

The Padres’ fifth-ranked offense (4.73 runs per game) has scored 13 times over their first two against Pittsburgh. Yet the series is at 1-1 despite Pirates pitching ranking second-worst in MLB.

  • SD Starting Pitcher: Joe Musgrove (3-0, 2.16 ERA, 0.880 WHIP, 9.0 K/9)
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller (0-2, 10.80 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, 8.2 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Houston Astros (11-10) at Toronto Blue Jays (14-8), 1:37 p.m.

Houston’s below-average offense misfired on Saturday, scoring just one time after posting 11 on Toronto the night before. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are hovering around the league average in both runs per game and ERA this season — a slow start for many World Series picks, but they’re still winning games.

  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.15 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.7 K/9)
  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, 11.3 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Seattle Mariners (11-10) at Miami Marlins (12-8), 1:40 p.m.

The Marlins have the sixth-best pitching stable in baseball with a team ERA of 3.10 this season. The Mariners aren’t far behind at 10th, and we have another stellar pitching matchup on deck today.

  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert (3-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, 8.9 K/9)
  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 1.78 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 7.1 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Los Angeles Angels (14-8) at Chicago White Sox (8-12), 2:10

The Angels have the fourth-best offense in baseball so far this season (4.73 runs per game) while the injury-riddled White Sox have the sixth-worst unit.

  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Michael Lorenzen (2-1, 2.93 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, 7.0 K/9)
  • CWS Starting Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel (1-2, 9.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 6.3 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

New York Yankees (15-6) at Kansas City Royals (7-12), 2:10 p.m.

The Yankees can’t stop winning behind the No. 3 scoring offense and No. 2 pitching staff (2.70 ERA) in baseball. Kansas City has the third-worst offense and seventh-worst team ERA.

  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino (2-0, 3.32 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 9.0 K/9)
  • KC Starting Pitcher: Daniel Lynch (2-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.188 WHIP, 9.0 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Chicago Cubs (8-13) at Milwaukee Brewers (15-7), 2:10 p.m.

Cubs pitching has hindered their start to the 2021 season with a team ERA of 4.55 (T-6th worst). The Brewers have the fifth-best team ERA in baseball, headlining a solid start to support the league’s No. 12 offense.

  • CHC Starting Pitcher: Marcus Stroman (0-3, 6.98 ERA, 1.448 WHIP, 7.9 K/9)
  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes (1-0, 1.75 ERA, 0.740 WHIP, 11.6 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Arizona Diamondbacks (10-12) at St. Louis Cardinals (11-9), 2:15 p.m.

The Diamondbacks have gotten good pitching (3.28 ERA) but their offense is second-worst in the league with 3.09 runs per game. Yet they’ve taken two of three from the Cardinals, who have scored twice in their last two games.

  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Zach Davies (1-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.473 WHIP, 6.9 K/9)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Hicks (1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 9.0 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Atlanta Braves (10-12) at Texas Rangers (7-14), 2:35 p.m.

The defending champs rank in MLB’s bottom-12 in both pitching and offense. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s return should add a spark, though. They were held to just one run on Saturday despite the Rangers’ fifth-worst team ERA of 4.57 this season.

  • ATL Starting Pitcher: TBD
  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Taylor Hearn (0-2, 7.47 ERA, 1.979 WHIP, 10.3 K/9)
  • The Pick: PASS (ATL starter unknown as of 10:30 a.m. ET)


Cincinnati Reds (3-18) at Colorado Rockies (12-9), 3:10 p.m.

The Reds have the fourth-worst offense and the worst pitching staff in baseball, which is no wonder why they’ve won just three of their first 21. The Rockies have the fourth-worst team ERA this season but are tied for the eighth-best offense.

  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Reiver Sanmartin (0-3, 10.91 ERA, 1.851 WHIP, 5.7 K/9)
  • COL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (0-3, 6.16 ERA, 1.684 WHIP, 8.1 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Washington Nationals (7-16) at San Francisco Giants (14-7), 4:05 p.m.

Washington ranks in the bottom eight in pitching and scoring, but they managed to put up 14 against San Francisco on Friday. The Giants have the fourth-best team ERA in baseball and the top-scoring offense — and they found their form on Saturday in a 9-3 win.

  • WSH Starting Pitcher: Josiah Gray (2-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 12.6 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb (1-0, 4.82 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 13.5 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Cleveland Guardians (9-12) at Oakland Athletics (10-11), 4:07 p.m.

The Guardians keep scoring with an offense tied eighth-best in baseball but their team ERA of 3.91 is ninth-worst. The Athletics are staying in the .500 hunt despite scoring 3.86 runs per game.

  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Triston McKenzie (0-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, 9.0 K/9)
  • OAK Starting Pitcher: James Kaprielian (8-5, 4.07 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 2021)
  • The Pick: 

Detroit Tigers (7-13) at Los Angeles Dodgers (13-7), 4:10 p.m.

The Dodgers have a MLB-leading 2.29 ERA this season and they rank second with 4.80 runs scored per game, but they came up empty in a 5-1 loss on Saturday night to the Tigers.

  • DET Starting Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez (0-1, 5.03 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 8.2 K/9)
  • LAD Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler (2-1, 2.55 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 7.7 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) at New York Mets (15-7), 7:08 p.m.

Mets pitching continues to shine with a 2.85 team ERA, which is third best in MLB. That’s more than one run better than the Phillies’ 3.85 mark. Philadelphia exacted some revenge from being no-hit on Friday, though, getting to the Mets bullpen in a 5-1 win.

  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Zach Eflin (0-1, 3.45 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 6.9 K/9)
  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA, 0.760 WHIP, 11.9 K/9)
  • The Pick: