MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: April 27, Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

Julio Urias delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action
Apr 22, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias (7) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Julio Urias (1-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (0-0, 1.00 ERA)

Aug 31, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY

The respect these two starting pitchers are getting from the linesmakers should not be something unbeknownst to bettors.

For a matchup to draw a total that is as much as two runs less than the previous night’s game (and Tony Gonsolin vs. Zach Davies isn’t even a horrible pitching matchup) is very rare. Perhaps even more impressive is that it drew a lower over/under than our series-opener under victory between perennial National League Cy Young candidate Walker Buehler and the emerging Merrill Kelly.

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Similar to that encounter on Monday night, we’ll be tapping into a pitcher’s notable success when squaring off with their opponent today — except for both.

Julio Urias has strung together exceptional numbers whenever seeing the D-backs. Hence why he’s 7-1 in nine games against them, six of those being starts. Urias was tremendous in all those outings, allowing two or fewer runs each time out while ultimately piecing a 1.55 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 33-4 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings. That’s simply excellence.

Well, like his teammates in the rotation before him, this might be the lefty’s least-challenging task as it relates to taming the Diamondbacks. They’ve been the league’s worst offense, and opposite southpaws, they’re even worse. Arizona is currently hitting .163 as a team with a .504 OPS in that department, both numbers ranking them dead last in Major League Baseball.

As a bonus, since this is a travel-day afternoon contest following a nighttime affair, we’ll likely see at least one or two D-back regulars — if not more — resting. Any combination of Jose Herrera, Geraldo Perdomo and/or Sergio Alcantara being inserted into the batting order makes the snakes so salivating for an under wager.

And then we have the meticulous Zac Gallen, who also sports a quality track record when facing this division foe. Though he’s only 1-2 in seven meetings, Gallen has registered a nifty 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while notably limiting the Dodgers to a harmless .201/.273/.322 line.

The 26-year-old is out to a fast start after a pair of nice showings against the Mets to begin his campaign. Given how frustrating his year was last season (injuries, constant bullpen meltdowns blowing his wins), there’s no way he’s going to go easy. Figure that mindset helps translate to more fine work and a positive contribution here. With a total of 8, just a quality start would be really great.

Even if each starter only goes five or six deep, be confident in the relievers that come in after. As usual, LA wields a bullpen that ranks among the best with a 2.22 ERA in the early going. The D-backs bullpen, meanwhile, has posted an acceptable 4.06 ERA. Either way, Urias and Gallen are in spots to pace silence.

Pick:


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record
*: “12-5-3,” +6.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Braves Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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