MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Reid Detmers (2-1, 3.77 ERA) vs. Taylor Hearn (2-2, 5.26 ERA)

Throwing a no-hitter is a very cool accomplishment and something to remember forever. At the same time, it’s not a proper metric in determining what is and what isn’t a legit solid starting pitcher.

Well unless you’re Nolan Ryan and have seven under your belt, in which case it is a metric to crown one of the best of all-time.

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Either way, I believe the nine innings of no-hit baseball last time out for young Reid Detmers are just a sign of things to come. Even before crafting a no-no, the second-year southpaw was really beginning to carve out his place in the Majors, having allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his six starts. Despite only being drafted two years ago, Detmers is already establishing himself.

True, his roughest outing so far this season came against these Rangers, but given the roll he’s been on since that second assignment of the campaign, we’ll trust this as a newer version of Detmers.

And besides, he wasn’t even bad in the first meeting, as it was just one inning deep into the ballgame that got to Detmers (plus the bullpen allowed all inherited runners to score). At the very least, Detmers should fare better against a club that is still lacking opposite lefties.

Last season, Texas had the worst team OPS (.652) in all of baseball against southpaws, and in addition, their .233 batting average ranked them second to last in the American League. In 2022, even after tidying the lineup during the offseason, those marks haven’t really improved. The Rangers are a handful of ticks higher in the OPS department (.672) — but with a worse team average (.224).

Detmers is in a position to keep the scoring from getting out of hand and despite some of the heavy lumber brought by the Halos into Arlington, Taylor Hearn can chip in with something useful as well.

Early into his career, the 26-year-old has shown a knack for pitching better at home than on the road, which is a tendency that can sustain considering he is from Texas. Look how he fared in the home opener.

I am also intrigued by Hearn’s history dealing with the always-dangerous Shohei Ohtani. In ten career plate appearances, Ohtani is 1-for-9 with five strikeouts and a walk. A nine-AB sample size isn’t big, of course, but those five K’s do stick out as a potential sign that Hearn may have the star player’s number. The offense beyond Ohtani, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh is thin.

Obviously, the difference in a total being 9 instead of 8.5 is huge, therefore I’m going to wait leading into first pitch to see if this over/under deflates by a half run since there’s no chance it goes in the other direction. Check back before game time.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “20-14-5,” +4.06 units

Yesterday’s Result: Yankees-Orioles Under 8 (“Push”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit