MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 2, Angels vs White Sox

Dylan Cease delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action
Apr 15, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Patrick Sandoval (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (2-1, 3.27 ERA)

Apr 19, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval (43) signals that he can’t hear while pitching against the Houston Astros in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Who could have predicted that Patrick Sandoval would clock out of the season’s first month with a scoreless ERA intact?

Yup, through three starts, the Angels left-hander didn’t yield a single earned run across 15 total innings. He also notably strung together a solid 20-6 K/BB ratio.

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While it’s definitely surprising this enormous leap Sandoval has seemingly taken, no one should really be surprised by the forward progress exhibited by the 25-year-old. After the All-Star break last season, Sandoval shackled hitters to a puny .197 average — remarkably only higher than Max Scherzer, Max Fried and Charlie Morton within this particular span.

Sandoval isn’t likely to come even close to sustaining this type of pace as we get deep into the season but attempting to ride him while he’s hot might be profitable.

We’ll look to deploy this strategy against a bit of a wounded opponent that is normally tough on left-handed pitchers. However, since Eloy Jimenez (hamstring) landed on the injured list more than a week ago, the White Sox haven’t been raking as frequently, evidenced by 25 runs they’ve plated in the eight games since. Andrew Vaughn (hand) is out today, too.

Just an outing mirroring something around a quality start would suffice here. Coming off his sixth career performance with at least nine strikeouts, Sandoval has to be feeling good. We have to believe that’s also true of the counterpart, Dylan Cease.

The fourth-year right-hander is perhaps in the midst of his best season yet based on his April showing. Cease pitched his team into at least the sixth inning in all four of his starts and he’s got a 3.27 ERA and .198 batting average against to show for it

People forget that Cease is in the conversation as one of the game’s emerging strikeout artists after punching out batters to the tune of 12.28 K/9 last season. This year, he’s already garnered 28 K’s in his 22 innings (11.45 K/9), and for this assignment, Cease will be facing a team that is top 10 in the Majors in K’s.

Helping his cause, the 26-year-old gets to work from home today where he’s been considerably better since first arriving in The Show. In fact, his career ERA at home (3.92) is nearly a full run lower than it is on the road (4.69). Both of his 2022 starts in Chicago thus far were excellent as well.

Additionally, with Shohei Ohtani being rested from the lineup today, that can provide a boost for the case of Cease.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “14-7-3,” +6.15 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Marlins Under 7 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit