MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 24, Blue Jays vs Cardinals

Kevin Gausman delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action
Apr 14, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Kevin Gausman (3-3, 2.52 ERA) vs. Jordan Hicks (1-3, 4.21 ERA)

Jordan Hicks in 2022 MLB action
Apr 26, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jordan Hicks (12)reacts after getting a strike out to end the first inning against the New York Mets during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Two serious weapons are about to collide.

As should be universal knowledge already, Kevin Gausman is one of the best arms to have on a pitching staff right now. The 10th-year right-hander enjoyed a true breakout campaign a season ago when he went 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA while finishing fourth in the league in strikeouts.

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Almost two months into the current year, Gausman has arguably been just as dominant. The consistency is certainly there, as the former first-round draft selection has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any assignment. Furthermore, his video-game-like 57-3 K/BB ratio places him tops among all qualified starting pitchers in strikeouts-per-walk rate with a mesmerizing 19 — that’s actually more than double the next-closest pitcher (Tyler Anderson, 8.4 K/BB).

Yeah, you get the point. Such excellence is very indicative of a pitcher being in complete control, and in this instance, it’s evidence that Gausman has continued from where he left off in his awesome ‘21.

As for the lineup he’s facing, it’s normally a good one but this is a batting order at far less than 100 percent. Tyler O’Neil (shoulder), Dylan Carlson (hamstring) and Yadier Molina (bereavement list) are out.

Now let’s review this other weapon being unholstered tonight, and it’s as explosive as one can be. That would be in reference to the flame-throwing Jordan Hicks, who is justifying the Cards’ move of him into the starting rotation with more nice work.

Most glaring, it looks like Hicks is finally stretched out now to cover the majority of a ballgame. After making his first two appearances of the season out of the bullpen to ease him back into action after missing most of last year with an elbow issue, Hicks is excelling now as a starter.

The 25-year-old has made six starts and, like his counterpart this evening, hasn’t yielded more than three earned runs in any outing either. True, he hasn’t been covering as much ground as Gausman but it appears Hicks is in a position to start doing just that based on his last three starts, in which he’s pitched St. Louis into at least the fifth inning. Hicks notably hurled more than 80 pitches last time out and it’s mouth-watering thinking he’ll be able to receive more than that allotment.

Best of all surrounding this transition from closer to starter is that Hicks is still carrying his usual fireball velocity. Though he was regularly throwing 100 on the radar gun out of the bullpen, we can still take solace that Hicks is still averaging a cool 98 mph. Very, very few can do that.

Sure, the Blue Jays’ offense is quite potent, but on the road? Quite different. A lot of people make a big deal about the Rockies’ huge discrepancy in their home-and-road offensive stats but Toronto is in that same boat. Their .617 OPS and .216 batting average rank 26th in the Majors.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “22-18-5,” +1.43 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Giants Under 8 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit