MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 6, Marlins vs Padres

MLB: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Apr 17, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) looks on during the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 6.5

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 2.90 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.44 ERA)

Apr 8, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

When these two clubs commenced their four-game series last night, there wasn’t much offense going on. Expect around the same output for the next meeting, this one featuring two of the league’s best aces.

Despite his second-half struggles from a year ago, Yu Darvish has returned to form in re-establishing himself at the top of the Padres rotation. Outside of one really nightmarish performance in which he was hounded for nine runs without escaping the second inning, the 35-year-old has looked really good, registering a quality start in each of his other four assignments.

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Rumors of Darvish’s demise whispered by some after the Spider Tack ban were greatly misspoken. He’s still an All-Star-caliber pitcher and will have the right matchup tonight to prove so once again.

Though Darvish actually does not possess good career numbers when facing the Fish, this is a considerably different lineup from years’ past, containing plenty of wood that the Japanese import handles.

The regular hitters in Miami’s batting order that have logged multiple at-bats opposite Darvish lifetime — Jorge Soler, Jesus Aguilar, Avisail Garcia, Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas and Joey Wendle — are a combined 3-for-36 (.083) with 17 strikeouts. So, not only does the majority of the batting order struggle against the tall right-hander, they have issues simply of making contact. Advantage Darvish.

Additionally, Darvish will be working from home tonight, which seemingly is his place of preference since joining San Diego last year. He’s made two starts at pitcher-friendly Petco Park thus far in 2022 and allowed only one run total. In his first year with the club last season, Darvish was also significantly better here (3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .206 BAA) compared to on the road (5.54, 1.32, .244).

When dealing with an under as low as 6.5, you generally want to have guys capable of a dominant showing on any given night. Well, we know the San Diego starter might be in position for another such outing. And we can usually bank on Sandy Alcantara.

This is especially true when the former All-Star is coming off a shaky outing, albeit one that wasn’t as bad as the final line may say (he yielded a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth for most of the damage done while on the mound). Still, it was a start that saw the Dominican native get tagged for five runs, but that’s something that can play into our favor.

There were eight previous instances where Alcantara allowed more than four earned runs, and in the eight follow-up outings, he was nothing short of marvelous. Two or fewer runs were scored off Alcantara in all but one of these ensuing assignments, while he collectively etched a pretty 2.22 ERA and 9.62 K/9. Not only that, he yielded only two homers.

One of the many things I love about the Marlins staff ace is that he bounces back quickly after a rare hiccup. Alcantara can pull of the same feat here and, matched with Darvish’s ownership of the majority of Miami’s lineup, contribute to a low score.

Given the allotment of the juice, I’ll be waiting a little longer before placing my wager. It’s possible the total inflates to 7, and considering the number likely won’t go the other way, seeking out that desired potential movement makes sense. Either way, I’ll still be on this encounter.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “15-9-4,” +4.88 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Mariners Under 7 (Push)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit