MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Austin Gomber (2-2,3.58 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (3-1, 1.55 ERA)
Whenever the Rockies are squaring off with a left-handed starter, bettors should always take note considering this is a club that’s ranked in the top 10 opposite southpaws in terms of team batting average across each of the last six years.
That unsurprisingly remains the case so far this season, as Colorado is carrying an MLB-best .311 average against lefties. However, superseding all of that could be the starting pitcher opposing them and the site of where said bout is being played.
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Well, in this case, the game is taking place outside of the Rocky Mountains, which is huge when prognosticating the outlook of the Rockies lineup. As highlighted yesterday in our under victory, there’s a lot less punch when away from Coors Field.
Once again, the Rox are swinging the bats much better in their home games, evidenced by a .281 average in these contests that ranks on top of Major League Baseball by a wide margin (the Mariners are next with a .261 clip). On the road, though, Colorado is hitting almost a full 60 points lower (.224), and this tendency has been prevalent for awhile. They even had the Majors’ worst average in away games (.217) only a season ago.
On top of that, the best player in this batting order, Kris Bryant (back), is still out injured. And we didn’t even get to the pitching tonight that Colorado will see.
Early National League Cy Young candidate Carlos Rodon gets the start for this series opener and will be seeking to continue a strong beginning that’s seen the lefty pitch his new team into the sixth or deeper while yielding no more than two runs each time out. Emphasis on “early National League Cy Young candidate.”
Rodon’s penchant for strikeouts have also remained a regularity based on the early returns. Given what he churned out last year (12.55 K/9), it’s safe to say that the former first-round draft pick is firmly entrenched as one of the best strikeout artists. He hasn’t allowed a homer, either.
I fully trust Rodon to deliver yet another gem, seemingly working with a chip on his shoulder in his first year as a Giant after he was gipped out of a Cy Young last season, albeit because of a brief injury issue that limited him to 24 assignments.
Whatever the case, Rodon can be counted on for another pleasant performance in this spot. The question is, can we trust counterpart Austin Gomber?
Well, I had the Florida Atlantic product’s first two starts of the campaign, both of which he was perfectly fine in, but since then, he appears to have settled in even more, illustrated by his current streak of three consecutive quality starts entering tonight’s date. Gomber had accomplished this feat only one other time previously.
To me, that’s a sign that the left-hander is hitting his stride right now and we’re getting him at the best possible time from a mental perspective. In addition, Gomber is getting a club that is tied for 22nd in team batting average (.212) versus lefties.
Rodon can be used as that main building block in digging out an under at Oracle Park tonight but with the way Gomber has been surging, feel good about entrusting him to deliver something useful as well.
Pick: UNDER 7 (-120)
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “18-9-4,” +7.88 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Diamondbacks Under 8 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit