2022 NCAA Tournament Final Four: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Villanova Wildcats
How to Watch:
- Date: Saturday, April 2
- Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA
- TV: TBS
- Live Stream: NCAA.com
Tale of the Tape:
| No. 1 KU | STAT | No. 2 NOVA |
| Big 12 | Conference | Big East |
| 32-6 | Record | 30-7 |
| 78.6 (28th) | Points Per Game | 71.9 (167th) |
| 68.1 | Points Allowed Per Game | 62.2 |
| 0.6607 (1st) | RPI | 0.6455 (4th) |
| 4th | Strength of Schedule | 11th |
| At-Large Bid | Bid | At-Large Bid |
Kansas leaders:
- Ochai Agbaji, G, SR: 18.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 39.8% 3PT
- Christian Braun, G, JR: 14.3 points, 6.5 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, 39.2% 3PT
Villanova leaders:
- Collin Gillespie, G, SR: 15.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 40.9% 3PT
- Justin Moore, G, JR: 14.8 points, 4.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG
Odds, Lines, and Past Performance:
- Spread: KU -4.5
- KU Moneyline: -195
- NOVA Moneyline: +165
- ATS Record: KU 19-19, NOVA 2o-15
- Over/Under: 132.5
- Over/Under Record: KU 19-17-2, NOVA 17-19-1
- Over/Under Trends: Three of Kansas’ last five games have gone over the 132.5 point total; however, their last two games have gone under. Four of Villanova’s last five games and gone under this total, including each of their last three games. In fact, Villanova has allowed 65 or fewer points in each of its last eight games.
The Pick
- Despite the other semi-final getting all of the attention, these are the two best teams left in the tournament according to both RPI and KenPom. Both teams also feature top-20 defensive units, which plays into the low over/under, with the Jayhawks ranking 17th and the Wildcats right behind them at 18th.
- Both offenses also come into the game in the top-10 in terms of efficiency with the Jayhawks ranking 7th and the Wildcats 9th. However, neither team has been particularly prolific on offense so far in the tournament.
- The leading scorer from either team during the tournament is the Wildcats’ senior forward Jermaine Samuels, who’s averaged 17.5 points on 63.4% shooting from the field to go along with 8.5 rebounds.
- However, the big news for the Wildcats is that junior and second-leading scorer Justin Moore tore his achilles in the final minute of the game against Houston and will obviously miss the rest of the season. Moore had scored 13 points per game during the tournament on 43.5% shooting from deep while also chipping in three assists per game.
- Without Moore, the team will need more from leading-scorer Gillespie, who has only averaged 13 points per game during the tournament and has really struggled with his shot, shooting 33% from the field and 31.3% from deep. Without Moore, the Wildcats will need Gillespie to find his stroke if they have any chance of winning.
- The Wildcats are 38th in the country in three-point attempts per game and shoot 35.7% from deep as a team, so having one of their better days from deep will likely be their best shot at beating the Jayhawks, which is an issue since the Jayhawks are 21st in the country, allowing only 29.6% shooting from beyond the arc.
- For the Jayhawks, they’ve been led by Remy Martin, who’s averaged 16.8 points on 54.5% from the field and 41.7% from beyond the arc during the tournament. He’s helped pick up the slack for leading-scorer Ochai Agbaji, who’s averaged 12.3 points per game during the tournament but only shot 28.6% from three.
- The Jayhawks will also rely a lot on forward Jalen Wilson to contain Samuels and Eric Dixon inside. Wilson has 10.5 rebounds per game during the tournament, but the next two leading rebounders for the Jayhawks are guards Agbaji and Christian Braun.
- Neither team is truly an “inside” basketball team, with both being led by strong guard play; however, the Wildcats have been the less mistake-prone offense, averaging only 9.9 turnovers a game (15th in the nation), while the Jayhawks average 12.3 turnovers a game. However, the loss of Moore may test the Wildcats’ ball security and be ultimately too big a hurdle to overcome against this Jayhawks team.
For more 2022 NCAA Tournament coverage, visit TailgateSports.com
