Major League Baseball is now a quarter of the way completed, which means it’s time to check in on the 2022 NL Cy Young odds. Since the beginning of the season, injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and poor performance from Brandon Woodruff have really shifted the race and some new contenders have started to emerge.
In this article, we’ll talk through the updated NL Cy Young odds and some of our favorite choices after a quarter of the season is now completed.
2022 NL Cy Young Odds
Corbin Burnes is one of the few names at the top here that was near the top coming into the season as well. The 27-year-old is 1-2 on the season but has a sparkling 2.26 ERA, which is supported by a 2.63 xFIP and 2.45 SIERA. He also has a stellar 0.83 WHIP and an impressive 27.4% K-BB%. He shouldn’t really be hurt by his lack of wins since it’s been established over the years that wins are really more of a team stat and not really indicative of a pitcher’s value.
Burnes has been going 6+ innings in each of his starts and while his 92.2% left on-base rate suggests that there will be some regression, he’s likely to be among the NL ERA and strikeout rate leaders by the end of the season while throwing 180+ innings, which will be a strong total for this year.
Joe Musgrove is another name that we need to discuss. He’s taken another step in his development this year and is currently 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA that is – mostly – supported by the predictive metrics with a 3.08 xFIP and 3.13 SIERA. He’s also pitched to a 0.94 WHIP and 20.7% K-BB rate, so he lacks Burnes’ strikeout upside but is also not giving up as much hard contact.
Since Musgrove is another pitcher who is consistently going deep into games, he should accumulate strong overall strikeout totals. The Padres have also had a strong start to the year and should get Fernando Tatis Jr. back in a month, which could help Musgrove boost his resume with a strong team context, making him a good bet at his current odds.
A surprise name here must be Miami’s Pablo López. The 26-year-old has always been talented but has never thrown more than 111 innings in a season due to multiple injuries. This season, López is 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA that is also supported by the predictive metrics with a 2.91 xFIP and 3.09 SIERA.
Similar to Musgrove, he has a 0.91 WHIP and a 20.8% K-BB% and is giving up a similarly small amount of hard contact. While nothing López is doing should be considered a fluke, he has a long track record of arm injuries that make it hard to bet him now that his odds have risen to this level.
Lastly, we need to talk about Zack Wheeler, who still has really favorable betting odds. Wheeler got a late start to the season due to shoulder fatigue, but he’s currently 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA, supported by a 2.88 xFIP and 2.94 SIERA. He also has a 1.15 WHIP and 22.3% K-BB% ratio, which compares favorably to the others on this list. He has also been among the league leaders in innings over the last few years and pitches for a good team, so he should rack up good stat totals; however, given his high innings total and past shoulder concerns, he is a risky bet.
Speaking of injured aces, Max Scherzer has seen his odds plummet to +4000 after landing on the IL with a strained oblique. He’s likely going to miss too much time to factor into the race, but he was 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 24.9% K-BB% when he got injured, so if he’s able to come back at full strength and keep pitching at that level for the rest of the season, he could be an intriguing long-shot bet.