MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 4, Diamondbacks vs Marlins

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 29, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 12:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 1.17 ERA) vs. Elieser Hernandez (2-1, 5.75 ERA)

Apr 29, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Elieser Hernandez (57) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Is it too early to declare being in the midst of a renaissance season put forth by the legendary Madison Bumgarner?

Knowing that trademark relentless attitude and mindset he possesses, of course not. The potential future Hall-of-Famer has looked good each time out and there’s no reason to see him suddenly let go of that in this particular assignment.

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It’s a friendly date with the Marlins in their glaringly pitcher-friendly digs. Not only that, this is an early-day-game-after-a-nighttime-affair iteration of the Miami lineup that is significantly less intimidating.

As is, the Fish flounder when pit against a left-handed pitcher. They’re one of only five clubs in the Majors currently with a sub-.600 OPS as a team opposite lefties and not only that, their batting average is sitting even at the Mendoza Line (.200).

So given that Bumgarner hasn’t allowed multiple earned runs in any outing yet, you have to figure he stretches this standout run at least another start. The matchup is certainly a favorable one for the veteran.

But can Elieser Hernandez and his 5.75 ERA thus far be trusted to help maintain a low-scoring pace? Considering the right-hander will be in his office of preference today, the answer would appear to be yes.

When Hernandez is working from home, he’s generally significantly better than anywhere else. Just look at how he’s constructed an ERA at Marlins… err, LoanDepot Park (3.66) that is nearly half – half! — of what it is on the road (6.05).

Furthermore, a lot less balls are sailing beyond the outfield fence in Miami when Hernandez is dealing. He’s yielded just 1.63 HR/9 lifetime in front of Marlins faithful, easily besting the 2.47 HR/9 he has in his outings away from South Beach.

Also of interest, Hernandez has been notably better during afternoon games compared to at night. In fact, they’re as striking as his aforementioned home-and-road splits. Hernandez holds a cool 2.97 ERA for his career in the day time, which is nearly half — again, half — the mark he’s posted under dark skies (5.51). It’s a big sample size.

Perhaps most importantly in helping ensure a fine showing from the 27-year-old (who just celebrated his birthday yesterday), he gets the dead-bat D-backs for his next turn — and not just any version of this horrid offense; one that features that killer trio on the back end of Sergio Alcantara, Geraldo Perdomo and Jose Herrera. Yeah, uh, don’t be scared.

So long as Hernandez didn’t go too hard for his b-day last night, this should be a successful performance in taming the harmless Snakes. Along with a Mad Bum masterpiece, the under looks good.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “15-8-3,” +5.97 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Athletics Under 7 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit