MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (2-2, 3.03 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly (3-1, 1.22 ERA)

Wow, really? A total of 8 for this matchup?

That’s just wrong. Of course, we have a legitimate ace in Sandy Alcantara going for the Marlins, and making things more salivating, this is a daytime assignment for the flame-throwing right-hander. He’s set to face the current owner of baseball’s third-lowest ERA among starting pitchers.

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I mean, there’s no question here that this total isn’t going to last, so be sure to get your wager in before the over/under drops.

Alcantara in afternoon starts is just magic. Many times, teams will trot out at least a bit of a downgraded lineup on these travel days and the 26-year-old seemingly always feasts under such circumstances.

That’s why in 28 career starts with the sun out, Alcantara holds a sterling 2.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 179 innings, which isn’t too far from the MLB record held by Jacob deGrom for lifetime ERA (1.81) in the afternoon. Alcantara is very steady.

He’s also drawing one of the lighter-hitting offenses — not to mention a group we’ve taken advantage of plenty already in the form of under bets. The Diamondbacks do not present much of an obstacle at the plate to keep Alcantara from stringing together his trademark solid performance.

Oh and we didn’t even get to the counterpart. While Alcantara is the more-known commodity of the two, it is Merrill Kelly that has been shining brightest thus far through the opening month and a half.

Kelly obviously won’t sustain that microscopic 1.22 ERA but, as I covered earlier in the campaign, he has shown this frontline-starter potential previously that would lead you to believe this beginning is indeed not a mirage. Remember, Kelly posted a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the shortened 2020 year prior to getting hurt.

It appears the KBO product (who still might owe taxes in Korea) has really put it all together. Kelly is holding opponents to a minuscule .212 batting average, and perhaps more impressively, not one hitter has taken him yard yet this season. His strikeout rate (8.27 K/9) is higher as well.

Putting Kelly in the best spot to succeed today is the fact that this will be a home outing for the 33-year-old. Kelly has been notably better at Chase Field in his career (3.30 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) than on the road (4.77, 1.36), and in addition, he’s generally looked stronger earlier in the day (3.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) than at night (4.23, 1.28).

For a total of 8, those tendencies can be so useful in sort of providing a floor with which to anticipate Kelly would fall on in a worst-case scenario. Given how consistent he’s been, though, trust the righty to at least continue pitching competently, and that opposite Alcantara’s work will do it.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “18-11-4,” +5.51 units

Yesterday’s Result: Phillies-Mariners Under 7 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit