MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 22, Braves vs Marlins

MLB: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
May 16, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) watches from the field after the first inning of the game against the Washington Nationals at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Ian Anderson (3-2, 3.75 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 2.49 ERA)

May 16, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Ian Anderson (36) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Well, well, well. If it isn’t old pal Sandy Alcantara pitching during the daytime.

Obviously, I just can’t get enough of the perennial National League Cy Young contender when he works in the daytime. One of my favorite stats among any starting pitcher has always revolved around Alcantara’s day-and-nighttime splits, in which the flame-throwing right-hander absolutely excels with the sun out.

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After yet another strong afternoon showing a week and a half ago, Alcantara now has a career 2.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 29 starts this time of day. The comparison I always love to make is that this isn’t far off from Major League Baseball’s all-time Afternoon King, Jacob deGrom, whose 1.81 ERA is lowest ever.

Aside from that, Alcantara appears to be locked in again right now, as evidenced by his second eight-inning, one-run-or-fewer-allowed gem of the year last time out. Plus, while the Braves can rake, this is an opponent Alcantara has handled well in the past. In seven career meetings, the 26-year-old holds a 2.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and in addition to that, he’s never yielded a homer in those 45 total innings!

His counterpart in this affair, Ian Anderson, is also in a nice groove entering today’s assignment. Since being tagged for five runs across less than three innings in his season debut, the former first-round draft pick has gone his last six outings allowing three runs or less to the offense.

That’s all you really desire when seeking the right opponent for Alcantara’s daytime magic. Knowing the Marlins hurler has a pretty high floor — at worst — in these spots, attaining someone from the other side that can churn out a fine effort is key.

Making matters more favorable for Anderson is that this afternoon’s iteration of the Marlins lineup is pretty lackluster through the bottom half. So long as he can navigate through the first handful of lumber, a useful job will be in the works.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “21-17-5,” +1.57 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Cubs Under 7.5 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit