MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 7, Brewers vs Braves

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Apr 9, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) looks at his World Series championship ring before a game against the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (1-1, 1.93 ERA) vs. Max Fried (3-2, 3.00 ERA)

Apr 13, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) delivers a first inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Premier pitching matchups garnering a total as high as 7 isn’t common anymore in the current landscape of baseball. That being said, it’s always worth noting when one such meeting does draw that number, and fortunately here, the oddsmakers elected to go with 7 for this potential duel.

Truist Park in Atlanta (or to be more specific, Cobb County) is far from a pitcher’s park, of course, but does it matter when you have these two studs going at it? And both in great rhythms.

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The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, is in the midst of reminding people that he’s one of the game’s most dominant starting pitchers around. Just look at his last three starts, in which Burnes collectively compiled 31 strikeouts to just three walks across 20.2 innings. Those were three consecutive double-digit strikeout performances, by the way.

Considering Burnes had never accomplished this previously — surprising, right? — I don’t think there could be a better sign of the fifth-year right-hander being completely in his zone.

When someone the caliber of Burnes is in a groove, you just watch in awe. That also means tailing said pitcher under the right circumstances, and given what the matchup is, this most certainly qualifies.

Although the Braves were the one team to tag Burnes for five earned runs last season during his award-winning campaign, the Saint Mary’s product did get a measure of revenge in the playoffs. For his lone postseason start, Burnes fired six scoreless innings against Atlanta, striking out six and yielding just two hits.

True, Ronald Acuna Jr. was not in the Braves lineup that day but his recent return from injury is taking a little bit of time to provide a jolt to the offense. The Braves have scored fewer than four runs per contest in Acuna’s first nine games back and it’s going to be tough to suddenly flip the switch opposite someone like Burnes while he’s running hot. Thus, maybe minimal runs from the home side.

We have a good shot seeking out decreased production from the away team, too, as the very talented Max Fried will be starting for Atlanta. Despite how the Brewers have come on lately, I don’t think that should shy us away from the prospects of another quality Fried outing.

First, Milwaukee is a team that is far less dangerous opposite lefties compared to right-handers, and this has been the case across multiple years now. Last year, the Brew Crew supplied the third-worst team batting average against southpaws (.230) in the Majors, and it’s been more of the same this season. So far they’re hitting just .216 with a left-hander on the hill, ranking them in the bottom third of MLB.

Those struggles have been on display when Fried’s seen Milwaukee, too. The former first-round draft pick has opposed the Brewers in four dates (including the NLDS meeting a year ago), en route to putting together a pristine 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while stringing together 9 K/9.

Like his counterpart this evening, Fried has settled in nicely since an uncharacteristic off showing on Opening Day. In fact, the 6-foot-4 southpaw has allowed as many runs combined in his other four starts (five) as he did in that first assignment. Overall, he’s also working on an outstanding 27-1 K/BB ratio.

Both starters are clearly on their game entering tonight and considering who we’re talking about, that should be the prevailing element that helps keep the bats at a quieter pace.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “16-9-4,” +5.88 units

Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Padres Under 6.5

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit